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Comment by matheusmoreira

1 month ago

I do wonder what the world will look like under a chinese hegemony though...

China is very inward-looking, though. It's not really interested in world domination in the same sense that Europe was or even the USA was/is.

  • China has been aggressively developing infrastructure and financial services all over Africa and the rest of Asia.

    https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106866

    • Yeah I saw this in Cambodia when I lived there. Sihanoukville had become a Chinese enclave almost completely.

      Different to the way that French colonialism worked, though. Less direct government, more influence of existing power structures and respect for the local government.

      There is definitely an argument that this is plain business investment - China has a lot of foreign currency to invest because of its trade surplus, and there isn't the opportunity within China to invest it all, so it is engaging with trade partners to invest in their economies so that they can increase future trade with China.

      You can also make the argument that this is not benign and China is trying to create control over foreign governments with this investment.

      I'm kinda "both can be true, but either are better than how we did it"

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    • They've mostly been concerned with resource extraction rather than colonial exploitation like the West. And in fact, they've ditched most of their infra and tech projects in Africa, because of inherent instability in dealing with tinpot dictatorships.

      On the other hand, every one in Asia is wary of too much Chinese presence and influence.

  • I keep hearing this and I fail to see any reason to believe that it will be the case. Any empire, in the history of our species, has always had an initial "inward-looking" period prior to becoming a full-fledged imperialist oppressor. Edo-period Japan into Imperial Japan, for example. Rather, what I think any budding empire needs a period of growth to become a large enough fish and also to delude its leadership and population into the convenient mindset that their flavour of imperialism is good and justified ("Hakkou ichiu", "The white man's burden", etc.).

    To me, the PRC is at the very end of that process and I recommend anyone doubting this to go and read conversations and listen to the words of the populace that is turning increasingly nationalistic and you will hear the same old tales of revanchism and exceptionalism that we are used to hearing (during my recent visit, I watched the morning news every day for about a week and without fail a military inspection, new ship, new plane, etc. was presented each day). In addition, I think those outside of Asia are very much shielded from the early signs, but go and read about PRC influence and tensions in South Korea, Japan, RoC, Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, India, Pakistan, and Tajikistan and you will see something rather different than "inward-looking". To me, here the PRC is simply testing the waters for the extent of the influence of other powers and how far it can go. Likewise, we are seeing overseas naval bases being constructed which sure is an indication for a desire to project power outwards.

    I want to believe that this time it will be different. I really do. Apologists around me say "It will only be Taiwan and the South China Sea, then then it will stop." and I would love to believe them. But can anyone truly internalise the narrative that international utopia will be spearheaded by a deeply authoritarian state that controls information like no other (and gladly exports that technology), disappears its own population at will, spins an increasingly strong nationalistic narrative, etc.? No, sorry, I think the "inward-looking" narrative is simply a convenient way for us to close our eyes and find comfort in ignorance, rather than in facts.

    • You may well be right, and it's really only that China has been more inward-looking recently, and given the chance it will spread its true colonial wings.

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    • So let’s just guess what China will do once it becomes dominant and act like it already did whatever we conjured up they will do. That’s how you get preventive wars that destroy civilizations without any actual basis on reality.

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  • Except of course for claiming all of the South China seas. See the Nine-dash line

  • It has been quite good at indebting countries to them, in Africa but also e.g. Montenegro.

    • Africans are more indebted to Western multilateral organizations and private Western bondholders than to the Chinese. The idea that Africans are being finessed by the Chinese is racist and stems from a "we know what's good for you" imperialistic lens.

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We are moving from unipolar hegemony to multipolar. There will be upwards of a dozen poles in time

  • Doubt. China is clearly on a level of its own compared to virtually every other country out there other than the USA.

    • I find it unlikely to be a duoply of hegemony for long, some countries to watch are Germany, Japan, India, Nigeria, and Brazil. You could broaden the geography to continents were I expect major players to emerge on each.

      We are only a few decades since the "end of history" and much has changed. What do things look like beyond 2050?

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Keep an eye on Central Asia and Pakistan then? They are heavily infuenced by China.

certainly better than this one. Look at Africa under western neocolonialism vs China's infrastructure loans

  • As someone from India and someone who knows people from Tibet, Chinese hegemony will be much much worse.

    There is no HN equivalent in China where users advocate that US hegemony will be better.

  • And that's going just swimmingly [0]

    [0] https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world/chinese-manager-beats... (possibly NSFW, I can't see the video in my browser but be warned)

    • There is no good imperialist power, there is no capitalism with a human face, there will never be. The UK murdered millions in India, Ireland and all around the world in their time. The US did the same. The only reason China isn't openly doing the same right now is because they are still the underdog and they still need cordiality to get through the door, just like the UK and the US did in their time. The solution is to rid the world of imperialism and capitalism as a whole. As long as there is a profit motive running through everything, international relations will be in the form of wars (military or economic). Only under socialism can the people of the world truly pool their resources together to build up instead of destroying each other.

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