Comment by crote

> we're not sure we could win in a war against China

The USA couldn't even win a war against Afghanistan - which had basically no army and is the second-poorest country in the world. It couldn't win in Iraq, Niger, Yemen, Somalia, Lebanon, Cambodia, Cuba, Korea, Laos, Tibet, and of course Vietnam. It is currently very much not winning in Iran either.

The main power of the US was its ability to bomb anyone they want to, due to a worldwide network of military outposts and a huge fleet of aircraft carriers. Prior to the drone era, this meant it was able to bully most countries into doing whatever the US wants it to do. As is now becoming painfully clear, it is no longer viable to maintain air superiority with a few dozen super-expensive toys, and hosting a US base is rapidly becoming a serious liability.

The USA is absolutely not going to win any kind of direct war. About the best possible outcome these days is maintaining its sphere of influence without either politically or economically ruining itself.