Comment by reasonableklout
3 months ago
It's novel because previous rounds of automation were about automating specific tasks or well-scoped functions. There was always an implicit understanding that the white-collar worker would be freed to spend their time on more valuable, higher-level problems. But this time is different because of the generality of the technology. Agents promise to automate the process of thinking itself. And in many domains they can learn new tasks as fast as white-collar workers can find them.
> It's novel because previous rounds of automation were about automating specific tasks or well-scoped functions. There was always an implicit understanding that the white-collar worker would be freed to spend their time on more valuable, higher-level problems. But this time is different because of the generality of the technology. Agents promise to automate the process of thinking itself. And in many domains they can learn new tasks as fast as white-collar workers can find them.
Nah, sometimes the expectation and advertisement was that you could let go of the white collar worker because you're paying the overseas person 1/10th the amount. And "overseas person" is pretty general.
"Everybody knew" it was a bad idea to get a CS degree for a bit after the dot-com bust because of that.
(Some white-collar industries did get hit much harder by that; VFX is one I've heard in that context quite a bit.)
That's a good point. However, overseas people are still people. They need to sleep, get sick, and the better they get at their jobs, the more money they will demand. The cheap ones also often have communication barriers and work slower than the workers they're replacing.
AI models get better and more efficient every 3 months, run around the clock, can be copied infinitely, and unprecedented amounts of capital and research talent are being thrown at any limitations we can see with them (such as problems writing correct code in 2024, lack of agency in 2025, autonomy and self-improvement in 2026). That's the difference between labor replacement through outsourcing vs. labor replacement through automation.
The implied assumption that “writing correct code” used to be a limitation that has been solved since 2024 is… overstating current capabilities.
The idea that “AI models” have acquired “agency” as of 2025 and are working on “self-improvement” in 2026 is closer to delusion than exaggeration.
2 replies →
The overseas person didn't work out because of time zone and cultural and language barrier friction that wasn't anticipated in the idea.
This isn't analogous to the threat of AI.
You say that as if the culture difference with a truly alien intelligence is insignificant compared to the culture difference with an "overseas person".
(Even assuming "intelligent" is a sensible label to apply to an LLM holding hands with a shell script in an infinite loop)
I’m at a fully remote company with staff in at least 8 countries speaking at least 5 languages. It works out fine. A possible analogy to AI is that a lot depends on how you use it. The “skill issue” doesn’t disappear, at least not yet.
>There was always an implicit understanding that the white-collar worker would be freed to spend their time on more valuable, higher-level problems
"Oh yeah, we're gonna bring in some entry-level graduates, farm some work out to Singapore, that's the usual deal"
Office Space 1999
It was so pervasive that it was satirized by someone that had worked in engineering in the 80s
> It's novel because previous rounds of automation were about automating specific tasks or well-scoped functions.
Evidently, this has not really changed with LLMs and coding agents. It’s what AI companies are betting on though.