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Comment by nostrademons

3 hours ago

There wouldn't be a product. Consumers would just use the underlying foundational models directly to solve their problem. ChatGPT and Claude and Gemini are the products, not your business.

Products are only viable when you do a lot of work to solve a problem, which is then shared by many potential customers. It makes sense to amortize the high costs of solving the problem across all the different customers to reap economies of scale. Businesses then pay for product design, hosting, and maintenance because those costs can also be amortized, and they are cheaper than a bespoke solution for each customer. But if the bespoke solution becomes cheaper than that, because it's generated by an LLM that doesn't need to be paid a living wage, there's no reason to have the product in the first place. Just solve your damn problem and let other people solve theirs.

This is an underrated factor in the market structure of the AI bubble going on now. Anecdotally, we're not seeing new AI-based products other than the foundational models and coding assistants gain traction. Why? Because AI makes it so easy to customize the solution to your particular needs that everybody is just solving their particular needs directly. It's the opposite of the Internet boom, where the network greatly expanded the potential market, reduced the cost of reaching them, and made it economical to spend large amounts of money building a software product that had a TAM of billions. The AI boom instead enables extremely cheap customization, which shrinks the market to a single customer who uses AI to directly solve their problem rather than building a product that's generally applicable.

> Consumers would just use the underlying foundational models directly to solve their problem. ChatGPT and Claude and Gemini are the products, not your business.

How am I going to use ChatGPT instead of, say, Figma or an office suite with my coworkers?? It's no use for it to spin up a clone for me if my coworkers can't collaborate. And if they can, what it will serve is a product.

How can it be cheaper for every company to re-invent the wheel?

> Products are only viable when you do a lot of work to solve a problem, which is then shared by many potential customers.

Yes, that's what businesses pay services for.

  • > How can it be cheaper for every company to re-invent the wheel?

    Companies not matching their prices to current reality, mostly.

    • What is that reality? There are already free, open source clones of many things but companies still pay for commercial versions. Do you think LLMs that you have to pay for are going to change that?