Comment by msteffen
7 hours ago
This is neat but IMO a little crazy.
Something I personally haven’t seen much of, in all the discussions of model benchmarks and AI breakthroughs, is a distinction between “peak performance” and “reliable performance”. The “peak performance” of frontier models is very high: they’re solving open math problems, analyzing large codebases, etc. But my subjective impression is that “reliable performance” is mid at best: out of 100 random questions I might think to ask, it’s likely to say something wrong or stupid a handful of times at least.
I think there’s inherent tension between the two: the more a model reaches or outright hallucinates, the more likely it is to come up with tricky, subtle solutions to problems (I think people are somewhat like this too: Terry Tao’s brother is nonverbal, Jim Watson’s son has severe schizophrenia, etc). But then the less likely it is to generate a sensible email reply.
I use models all the time for coding, but I would not let one take over my daily correspondence. If the idea here is to run frontier models at high speed in data centers, that could be useful (the speed would be cool), but I’d be surprised if the cost of that hardware churn is worth it to frontier labs. But if the idea is to turn this into a chip that goes in your phone as some kind of routine, low-power inference thing…taking something too kooky to be relied on and baking it into your phone’s hardware like that doesn’t make sense to me.
I think you're underestimating both their reliability for standard problems and the usefulness of that level of reliability.
This is a good point. Opus does some silly shenanigans sometimes but then catches it later. It’s still an order of magnitude faster at getting to a working system than I am, for ones I don’t know.
It’s really a dream for setting up a homelab
> out of 100 random questions I might think to ask, it’s likely to say something wrong or stupid a handful of times at least.
What are some examples?
There's a benchmark for this and a lot of models get negative scores because they're so unreliable: https://artificialanalysis.ai/evaluations/omniscience
I wanted some examples they actually experienced. Because I use these things daily and haven’t seen a hallucination in a long long time.
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