Comment by SirHumphrey
12 hours ago
There is just A LOT of data available- usually an order of magnitude more than in any other related problem.
And general weather forecasts are not that hard - we have semi useful forecasts for more than 50 years. It’s when you want to do something special: long range, nowcasting of convective storm, other extreme weather etc. that is hard. And even then it’s as much a problem of input data accuracy than the models themselves.
Traditional physics based weather models also rely heavily on physical parameterization for sub grid scale processes (think clouds, microphysics of rain sleet snow, etc) so even the deterministic physics models are learned approximations from data.
traditional physics-based weather models also rely heavily on humans looking at the output and the evaluation of the output to discard wacky runs. Let's not pretend that existing physical models of the atmosphere stay on the rails all the time.
When you say runs that is an ensemble model forecast which is different than a deterministic model forecast. Any type of weather model sensitive to initial input state errors will have outlier model runs.