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Comment by JimmyBuckets

7 hours ago

As LarsDu88 mentioned above, its actually not this old. The idea is recent but is based on an ancient conflict. That is my mistake. The wiki article has interesting info on the examples that the originator saw:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap

Thanks for the list of examples.

It is odd to see a single country being repeated at different times as the "incumbent" power.

The latest example in the list shows "UK and France" as incumbent power and Germany as rising for the 1990s - present.

The US is only listed for the 1940s - 1980s as incumbent, with Japan and Soviet Union as rising.