Comment by thelastgallon
7 hours ago
Indeed. Electricity will be the only abstraction layer of energy, all end uses (transportation, cooking, heating, cooling, appliances) will switch to electricity.
Electricity can be generated from any source (dirty + clean), but the abstraction layer of electricity will allow the grid to continuously increase the clean fuels. It helps that the cleanest is also the cheapest. Solar panels are cheap as dirt. In 1975, a solar PV module cost $128.27 per watt. In 2026 it costs $0.1 - $0.2 per watt, a thousand times cheaper. In 1975, only satellites could afford solar. Today, its the cheapest source of energy.
China will be an electrostate. Are there any other electrostates? Maybe Bhutan, Costa Rica, but they are too small.
You are assuming that carbon negative countries are all electrostates. That's not true at all. Buthan and Panama which are carbon negative are very far from being electrostates. Costa Rica is not even carbon negative nor an electrostate. Carbon negative countries and Costa Rica due to their low GDP are very far behind on electrification.
Just look up the percentage of new car sales that are electric on each of those countries. It's around 5%. The reason? They cost 35,000 dollars at the low end even for a Chinese SUV whereas the average new car uses gasoline and costs 16,000 dollars for a Chinese SUV.
according to these countries' censuses, Cooking with electricity and drying clothes in a clothes dryer are rather rare too, around 10% or lower. although clothes dryers are more common in apartment buildings, apartments are only around 10% of all houses. Most people cook with small government subsidized 25 pound LPG tanks. Water heaters are used by 5% of the population because the water is actually desirable cold and not hot because the air is hot instead of cold and there is no winter.
They are carbon negative because their population is small enough to have most of the country still covered in virgin jungles and forests. They are big enough to offset the carbon emissions of their small populations. The ratio of forest to population works out to make the country carbon negative.
Also due to low GDP, they don't consume much energy and houses are small. For example most people don't run AC most the time unlike the US or don't have AC at all. Houses are usually 50 to 100 square meters. Electric service is 120 amps at 120 volts split phase. That's just 14 kilowatts. Running AC even for 8 hours a day can cost half the average monthly wage.
Everything is within walking distance and highly centralized in cities. Even suburbs are high density with almost no outdoor space.
> China will be an electrostate. Are there any other electrostates? Maybe Bhutan, Costa Rica, but they are too small.
China for sure. The rest will come as they replace the last of coal and fossil gas with anything low carbon, solar, wind hydro, as well as the necessary battery storage and transmission for energy orchestration and agility. Like Norway is already at 100% of EV sales and other countries are still close to 0%, we're simply observing a global energy transition horse race. Exciting time to be on the timeline imho.
Ember Energy: Global Electricity Review 2026: Solar surge halts fossil generation rise as clean power meets all demand growth and renewables overtake coal - https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-... - April 21st, 2026
The ‘profound’ global impact of China’s rise as an electrostate - https://www.ft.com/content/013e8a27-ade5-48ed-8f2e-ffbf70cc5... | https://archive.today/J0bew - October 10th, 2025