Comment by Johnyjohnson123

Most discussion in recent years about chip fabrication shortages, expansion, etc has focussed on leading nodes (<7nm) and AI/computer chips. But perhaps more quietly in the background, China has been rapidly building other semiconductor capacity such as power semiconductors used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar modules, train traction systems, etc. For example, Chinese-produced motor vehicles (37% of global motor vehicle production in 2025) in a year or two are targeted to use 100% domestically produced chips, and this production is decreasingly dependent on imports, even for factory tooling.

The report at [1] is a good summary of long term trends for China's rise in domestic self-sufficiency for semiconductor manufacturing. The report predicts "At current pace, China may achieve self-sufficiency in semiconductor manufacturing by 2027-2028, though trailing at leading-edge nodes". By contrast, before the first Trump presidency in 2017, a chart shows China importing 30% of all globally manufactured semiconductors (and increasing). Other reports on semiconductor fabrication equipment sales show the means, which is China having been and continuing to be in number (1) position for expenditure on semiconductor fabrication equipment.

The reports at [2] and [3] are also a good summary of long term trends for semiconductor foundry capacity predictions to 2031. A prediction is made that China's current 12% global semiconductor foundry supply capacity (across all semiconductor categories) in 2025 will expand to ~30% by 2031.

[1] https://www.yolegroup.com/product/report/china-semiconductor...

[2] https://www.yolegroup.com/product/report/status-of-the-semic...

[3] https://www.yolegroup.com/press-release/the-global-race-for-...