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Comment by izend

1 day ago

The strongest El Niño ever caused a massive famine:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1877%E2%80%931878_El_Ni%C3%B1o...

90 comments

izend

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culi  1 day ago

To be fair, we didn't have the World Food Programme in 1877 which lets us anticipate droughts distribution and crop failures months ahead of time.

That being said, the existing energy crisis and fertilizer crisis can significantly compound the negative impacts of this El Niño even if we are able to anticipate it.

  • huijzer  21 hours ago

    > lets us anticipate droughts distribution and crop failures months ahead of time.

    If by “us” you mean big corporations, which will then buy the stuff and sell it at a premium later, then I agree.

    • ben_w  19 hours ago

      Many farmers are subsidised specifically so that food is over-produced in most years, specifically to ensure than in bad years people don't go hungry.

      Corporations may indeed be taking advantage of this, demanding prices so low that the farmers don't get the benefit of those subsidies. However:

      > buy the stuff and sell it at a premium later

      Is the point of a futures market. Futures let people trade a thing before they even know how supply and demand will balance, guaranteeing a price for the producer and letting them plan purchases of machinery and maintenance, with the risks (in bad years) and profit margins (in good years) going up the supply chain.

      40 replies →

    • xhkkffbf  12 hours ago

      So are we supposed to demonize the big corporations for making a profit or celebrate them for planning ahead and making sure we don't starve?

      I'm not so sure these days.

    • dukeyukey  14 hours ago

      I mean do we not want food to be stored for tough times? And the people who do this storing should get paid for it?

    • roenxi  20 hours ago

      If you think that is going to happen, you can buy up some supplies and store them yourself. I have relatives with some impressive and substantial pantries because they're prepared to be snowed in for an extended period of time. Running out of food is possible the least novel problem humanity has ever encountered.

      And what would you rather happen? If they don't store up a surplus then everyone will run out of food and prices will go up anyway. If there is less food because of a drought, prices are going up. If corporations start building up a stockpile then prices aren't going to go up as much as if there were no reserves.

      TLDR; Yes. Good. It is a great day when there is food available at the local supermarket.

      19 replies →

  • brewdad  4 hours ago

    Does that program still exist in the way we expect it to or has it been DOGE’d like the USAID program?

ksec  7 hours ago

That is the question I am trying to get from the article. Will this new "keep growing" strongest ever be as bad as the one in 1877.

But it keep explaining what El Niño and Super El Niño and how it develops without giving me any context of how strong it will be.

  • bbor  4 hours ago

    Yes, AFAIU it is far and away the biggest in recorded history. That said, the 1877 one also lined up with one or two other meteorological events by chance that made the famine worse, and it’s my understanding that we don’t know if those will be present this winter or not.

    It’s gonna be a weird one…

pelasaco  20 hours ago

A modern 1877 scale event would probably immediately fuel (pun intended) a furious climate change debate, even though attributing the existence of the El Niño itself to fossil fuels would not be scientifically justified... or maybe was the 1877 El Niño caused by fossil fuels (so many Wars happened in those years) ?

  • defrost  20 hours ago

    Nobody in planet modelling has ever suggested that the 3 phase El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exists because of fossil fuel usage.

    An extreme swing, here and there, has always been part of its nature.

    The observed change is more and more extreme swings, greater amplitude, higher frequency.

    • pelasaco  14 hours ago

      > Nobody in planet modelling has ever suggested that the 3 phase El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

      We saw already around 2020 or so that specialists opinions didn't really matter. Feelings and politicians opinions were more relevant... so "nobody in planet modelling" means nothing if Politicians and Activists tries to create this link..

      Al Gore, if I remember correctly, and António Guterres, i think last month, tried to create this link already.. probably others too?

      7 replies →

    • pelasaco  19 hours ago

      in one hand i wanted to highlight that if it was today, we - as civilization - would definitely create a link between the events, based on our "feeling"

      in another hand, i question if we really could rule out, since back in the days, everything that we have was coal.

      4 replies →