Comment by paxys
17 hours ago
OpenAI is worth $800B because that’s what the last funding round valued it at. It does not mean that >50% of existing shareholders will agree to sell for that amount. If a serious buyer does emerge they will likely hold out for 2x that, maybe more.
OpenAI is worth the discounted value of their future free cash flow. It's not clear at this point how much free cash flow they will ever generate, if any.
Might be negative.
OpenAI will have pretty good future free cash flow...until GDDR7 prices are no longer inflated by scarcity. Which could be 24-72 months.
OpenAI is worth whatever someone will pay for them. Overpriced and underpriced are just words. If someone's willing to pay an amount for something, that's what it's worth.
"We're selling to willing buyers at the current fair market price."
Well, yes but not really.
I could buy a local sweetshop for a 100 billion dollars, just because I might do that, that doesn't mean it's actually worth that.
19 replies →
Do you mean that there is no way to value OpenAI for a purchase so a sale is impossible?
At the least OpenAI is worth what the market is willing to pay for it.
Not to mention that the US would have to approve the sale to another country, which they are unlikely to do.
Possibly, they could also sell assets and cease operation.
Selling the assets would probably be liable to similar restrictions.
Or 2x less. 800B valued is not 800B invested. And it wouldn't be the first time investors sell at a loss if sentiment declines.