Comment by ACCount37
16 hours ago
I don't think it works that way for AI. Comms networks are extensive physical infrastructure that, by definition, has to cover ground. AIs cover the ground by riding the existing comms lines.
In telecomms, the late mover has the advantage of not having legacy networks to maintain, and having better technologies available at rollout time. What is the "late mover advantage" in AI? Being able to distill from every bleeding edge frontier lab? That gets you near parity at best.
> That gets you near parity at best.
So they don't spend 20 trillion dollars to achieve AGI, and in the end they still end up at parity for a tiny fraction of the cost.
How can you claim that this isn't a win?
That assumes they release their models publicly. The future is leaning towards these labs air gapping their best stuff (Model 2, etc) and using it internally to snipe their competitors and charge insane amounts for monitored use in consulting environments.
You can't distill or catch up if you can't access the models. You'll basically have a situation where nation-states will need to try and steal the models Oceans 11 style.
Getting to parity with less money means that you can go further with the same amount of money.