Comment by dessimus
18 hours ago
Maybe when its actually demonstrated that it can actually launch with that payload. The largest payload they'd lifted so far is ~45 tons, and the claims I see on Wikipedia say its estimated 200 tons for LEO, not even for geosynchronous orbit much less a lunar trajectory.
20 launches would also be doable, though, if there's a reasonable launch cadence? And yeah, I don't expect they'd assemble for a Mars mission or other long range mission where they need a radiation shielded craft in geo or lunar.