Comment by wahern

> One major issue is that the ACA put in a loss ratio of 80%. Which isn't a terrible thing in principle, it forces insurance companies to spend money on treatment. The problem is it also means that the profit of insurance companies is tied directly to how much they spend on healthcare. As a result, they are incentivized to spend more, not less, on medical treatments so they can justify higher premiums.

Investors care about margins, not absolute dollar figures. If your non-medical costs are capped, the incentive would be to reduce your other costs to preserve or maximize profits.

So the 80/20 rule is unlikely to have caused anything. More likely it's too low, and the profit ratio that can extracted and passed to investors is still higher than most investing alternatives, which is why it keeps attracting more investment. Without the 80/20 rule we would have seen the same thing or worse, though perhaps slower premium increases but less treatment delivered.

Really this all points to structural problems in the market. Naively we might presume there's not enough competition, and there could be many reasons for that--over regulation, lack of transparency. But it's more complicated than just that because medical treatment, particularly the most costly treatments, presumably have very high price elasticity [citation needed]. Over the long term, investors are just gonna keep trying to draw as much from the well as they can. The problem with public single-payer is that the basic demand curve dynamic doesn't magically change, so rather than complain about high prices people complain about shortages, OR the government just keeps borrowing to maintain satisfactory treatment access until they can't borrow anymore.

Maybe the only solution to rising healthcare costs is to slow down the pace of medical advancements. People love to point out how cheap care is elsewhere, but the most advanced and costly treatments usually become available in the US first, taking years or even decades to spread. (Note, higher prices on pre-existing tech subsidize the cost of bleeding edge treatments, so comparing MRI prices isn't very helpful.) Moreover, people elsewhere don't really know about them so it doesn't detract from their perception of the quality of care they receive. If you're dying and the doctor says there's nothing he can offer you, then that's that and no ill feelings toward the medical establishment. If he says there is something but it's gonna be crazy expensive or there's a shortage/waiting list, now your pissed.