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Comment by josephg

4 hours ago

Yeah. Sometimes I wonder who the long term financial winners will be from the ai boom. It might be ram / gpu manufacturers. Or whoever cracks putting LLMs on asics.

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josephg

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a2ff6eeb0  4 hours ago

It's going to be the shareholders of the first companies to crack AGI, and make human brains fully irrelevant economically. With the trillions of dollars that's going in through both investment and users, it's going to happen. I don't believe the human brain has fundamental magic that will make this impossible.

  • georgemcbay  34 minutes ago

    > It's going to be the shareholders of the first companies to crack AGI, and make human brains fully irrelevant economically.

    What makes you think if one or two AI labs can do this that the rest (including open model providers) won't be able to follow the same path a few weeks/months later?

    Even if you believe in the "Singularity", and believe it is coming soon, I still don't see any reason to believe the Singularity will be... singular. There won't be one clear winner, the race doesn't get called as soon as the first person crosses the line.

    None of the AI labs are showing any sign of pulling away to a monopoly or duopoly position, to the contrary the early large leads of OpenAI and Anthropic have all been evaporating.

    AI has clear economic value. It still isn't clear at all how the providers of AI will capture that value in a moatless environment with the technology becoming rapidly commoditized.

  • a2ff6eeb0  2 hours ago

    For the downvoters: What magic do you think the human brain has that makes it impossible to emulate acceptably?

    • pianopatrick  1 minute ago

      It's not about the feasibility of the technology.

      If "human brains become fully irrelevant economically" then that brings into question the entire premise of "share holders" and "financial winners".

      What even are money, shares, stocks, and finance in a world where human brains are irrelevant economically? No one knows, but betting that "share holders" will be the winners is a highly questionable bet.

      I would much more likely bet that "the armed group who manages to control and benefit from the AI through force" will be the "financial winners" more so than "share holders", who tend to not be terribly military minded at least in America.