Comment by make3
6 hours ago
well, a stroke of luck until the whole US stock market crashes & everyone's retirement funds get cut 40% I guess when people internalize this. it will have to happen sooner or later though I suppose
6 hours ago
well, a stroke of luck until the whole US stock market crashes & everyone's retirement funds get cut 40% I guess when people internalize this. it will have to happen sooner or later though I suppose
I'd take a market crash over a monopoly in the hands of a ghoul like Altman.
The economy he and his ilk want to build is infinitely worse.
In truth it crashes either way.
interestingly also, open weight models are also more effectively run in the cloud, so it creates a weird scenario where the frontier labs crash but the compute providers, not as much
I wouldn't be so sure about that. The popping of a bubble is usually just as irrational as its rise.
If investors start fleeing from senseless businesses in the AI sector, that does not mean that sensible businesses will be spared. These things follow herd mentality, and the primary drivers of the herd are greed and fear, not fundamentals or business logic.
America is pretty close to rhyming with nazi germany circa 1929.
Ok, I'll bite. What's your rationale?
1 reply →
This is funny because the stock Market has been ahistorically high. My portfolio went up over 20 percent in the last 12 months.
A major correction would be a bummer but we were never entitled to these abnormal gains in the first place.
It’s not as bad as dot.com of course since all purely AI companies are private and the ones on the market have pretty decent cash flow outside of AI. But the stock market pattern is not that dissimilar, the largest increases are usually just before the crash.
Yeah the last year has been astonishing, my portfolio is kicking ass. But I'm 10 years out from retirement and I am pretty confident a correction is coming; I hope the correction happens soon.
The market (s&p500) crashing 40% puts us at levels we haven't seen since 2024, well into the creation of LLMs. Probably a worthwhile trade if it was either/or!