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Comment by hedora

16 hours ago

My AMD strix halo box (haven’t benchmarked yet) should also run it reasonably well. It was $1400 at launch, and is $4K now.

Your mac is < $2K in Biden-era dollars. Presumably the economy will eventually recover; maybe in one Moore’s law doubling if the midterms go outrageously well. That’ll be two doublings since the halo launched. I’d expect this model to run on a sub $1K box by then. $2K ought to get you a 512b parameter model at that point. If we have to wait out the rest of the term, the cost cliff will be even more pronounced when it hits.

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hedora

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aftbit  15 hours ago

I believe you're underestimating the lag inherent in the economy. Even if we grant the idea that the political party controlling the US House/Senate has a significant impact on the economy, and that the current party is BAD and the next one would be GOOD, I would still expect that things will continue getting WORSE for a good 4 to 8 years before they get better again.

And that's even with assuming that we can continue to ignore the long-term problems like social security insolvency, the debt bomb, or climate change forever.