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Comment by nradov

9 hours ago

It's not unrealistic. Several Chinese companies seem to be close behind. People thought they would never catch up to the US car industry and now look what happened.

To the best of our knowledge, these Chinese companies rely on distillation of frontier models by OpenAI and Anthropic, which isn't a method available at the frontier itself.

  • I'm not really convinced that there's much secret sauce here, all the methods and data are public, the only real difference is how much compute it takes.

    • everybody do be cooking with water. Chinese Labs provided pretty good, primarily cost-reducing techniques, like the sparse attention patterns recently. I'd bet OpenAI and Anthropic use their variants of those too, so they can get greater margin on their tokens - not something they'd really want to / need to self-report.

Frankly, the US car industry hasn't set the bar very high. They were not very innovative in the last couple of decades. I think the European industry is a better benchmark, and even then the result is pretty clear.