Comment by einsteinx2

> Has frontier progress finally stalled?

From my experience using coding agents approximately 7 days per week for the past year and a half or so, we hit the top of the S curve about a year ago around Opus 4.5, and it’s mostly been harness and other tooling improvements since then with small percentage improvements coming from the actual models.

I was saying this already months before Fable dropped and thought from all the Mythos hype that maybe I was wrong…then Fable came out and was barely better than Opus 4.8.

Considering how many more parameters Fable is supposed to be than Opus, we seem to have hit a scaling limit at least with current transformer architecture considering how closely Fable and Opus benchmark and perform in practice.