Comment by dosisking
4 hours ago
AI companies will never go to zero because AI is part of the Military Industrial Complex now. All the money is coming from the military and government for surveillance and power and war.
4 hours ago
AI companies will never go to zero because AI is part of the Military Industrial Complex now. All the money is coming from the military and government for surveillance and power and war.
Speaking of wrong predictions... the entire US military budget would have to be spent on OpenAI/Anthropic to keep the bubble from bursting.
Every conspiracy theory has an escape hatch
Ad-hoc hypothesizing ("escape hatches") are dangerous but not quite invalid. Eg, they failed to find gravitational waves until they did, and you could have viewed building yet another more sensitive detector as a similar exercise in refining a hypothesis that you keep receiving contrary evidence for. Sometimes you really did just underestimate how difficult your hypothesis was to demonstrate. Maybe Meta will be destroyed in 2027, or whatever.
The problem with conspiracy theories is more that they have a ratchet-like quality where counter evidence reaffirms the theory in your view and you can only ever get more confident. We should have been increasingly skeptical of gravitational waves to some degree as we failed to demonstrate them, even though we didn't abandon the hypothesis and it ultimately prevailed. But if you adopt a wrong idea, and people try to demonstrate that to you, and you take that effort they're putting forward as a sign that you are correct and they must be hiding something from you, it will be very difficult for you to realize your mistake.
So, as long as you are less certain than you were before, I don't think rolling your prediction over into the future is necessarily conspiratorial or a mistake.
It’s the moon-leopards in league with the bee-people. Only an IDIOT wouldn’t know this, it’s OBVIOUS.