Comment by Diederich
15 hours ago
Totally agree. When this current wave of GenAI really started heating up, I guess 2020-2021, my analysis was very straightforward. What are the high level inputs to long-term success? I basically came up with a couple of criteria:
1. Data. Lots of data.
2. Money. Lots of money.
3. Access to necessary hardware.
4. Business alignment/will to do it.
5. Access to talent, current and future.
This is certainly incomplete/naive. In my mind, though, Google was the clear answer.
On a more personal level, I've been deep into the Google ecosystem since I got diederich@gmail.com in 2005. (I actually paid 50 cents on ebay to get a very early invite.) There was no question in my mind that Google's AI work would deeply integrate into their whole ecosystem in very powerful and productive ways. (Yes, I can join you to discuss, at length, the various ways that Google's dominance is problematic/scary.)
Having said all that, I'm quite happy that there is, at the moment, a very rich competitive landscape. Indeed, not too long ago, with Gemini Pro 3.1 languishing, I moved most of my deeper thinking work to ChatGPT, which was, for me at least, clearly outperforming Gemini.
While I certainly didn't anticipate it, Google's strategy of making their fast/relatively inexpensive models surprisingly powerful has been a welcomed surprise.
I think you forgot to mention energy efficiency. If you build AI hardware in-house, your only other expense is energy and the producer surplus is greatest for companies producing below the equilibrium market price.
It's the difference between billions in revenue and billions in profits.
Not only do they have access to the hardware - they've been developing it in-house for years.