Comment by pvaldes
3 days ago
> What benefits Russia would see in deciding to directly attack NATO in a way that would lack any plausible deniability.
Several possible benefits. In the last months Russia has tried repeatedly to lure Nato to a response for their constant provocations.
This way they can claim that Russia is being attacked by Nato and 1) have an excuse to start a massive mobilization of their reserve soldiers planned for this fall and 2) activate the mutual defense treatise with China and NK so they force both countries to participate directly in the war.
Some issues I see here:
- Zelensky has claimed literally every single year that Russia is planning a massive general mobilization. This has never happened nor anything at all like it. The latest claim will likely turn out as all others prior.
- Russia does not have a mutual defense pact with China, nor any sort of military alliance at all. In fact China could cripple Ukraine at any moment if they so chose. 'Ukrainian' drones are loaded with components stamped 'Made in China.' China has historically been, and remains, the world's merchant whose primary interest is themselves, as should be the case for all sovereign nations.
- Your scenario relies on Russia believing that they'd have a greater edge in a direct Russia + North Korea vs Ukraine + NATO conflict than in the current status quo of Russia vs Ukraine with North Korea and NATO playing significant but limited auxiliary roles. This seems highly improbably since they already had endless reasonable justifications to create this scenario if they wanted, and have constantly sidestepped it. By contrast this is the exact scenario that Ukraine and warhawks in NATO have been trying to create. But outside some unprecedented escalation from Russia, Western nations will never tolerate coffins being draped in any color except yellow and blue.
Not sure what was last year etc but this year claims are realistic on mobilization.
Russia already tested playbook by doing drafts on the street in limited regions . There’s plenty of videos just Google that . Seems like their strategy will not be all nation mobilized but rather hey , we do in one region , wait , switch to another , repeat .
NATO is half dead , and that’s the main goal of Russia , north Korea , China etc . If they attack the most weak enemy eg baltic counties and claim like hitler did : we achieved what we wanted we just want piece and we are ready to strike piece also with Ukraine , it will :
Prevent any reaction from the nato , since not that many countries within nato will be willing to defend Latvia or Estonia , especially if offense will be complete and successful. Who will defend Latvia ? Germany ? Doubt , Poland ? They do not have a modern army , they still buying tanks and submarines in the age of drones . And Russia do have lots of drones . More than entire nato by a lot of, not to tell if you deduct USA and Turkey , two biggest military NATO powers that will not be eager to defend Baltic regions . Imagine also that Iran will decide to use the moment and coordinate their offensive.
As a result , this few days war can effectively formalize end of NATO and the western world as it is .