Comment by piloto_ciego
10 hours ago
99.9% with the right harness? Ok, we're at AGI then.
Prediction:
We will now see the goalposts moved towards "well, a human costs less / is more efficient" - that will prevail for a few months until they come up with some other test that humans can do easily but is hard for the bots. This cycle will continue for ever and in 25 years, despite having hyper intelligent embodied robots or whatever, we'll still be arguing about if the singularity is here and if we're at AGI for the rest of my life most likely.
They explain it here: https://openai.com/index/how-two-settings-tripled-our-arc-ag...
TLDR: The official ARC harness throws away old context and reasoning. No real-world harness is this bad, the model has to re-learn the game repeatedly. OpenAI basically just added standard compaction. Their harness is still "general".
Then why is unemployment around 4%? You believe we have AGI and yet it can’t do anyone’s job?
Didn’t I just see a thing about how actual unemployment is at like 24% a few days ago?
According to that interpretation, ~24% is one of the lowest ever.
https://www.lisep.org/tru
(I have not gone down the rabbit hole to understand how they achieve that 24% number)
4 replies →
We were already there with Opus 5 -> https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/nvidias-harness-hit-100-arc-a...
AFAICT nvda's result is on the 25 open problems, while this submission is on the "semi-private" set, ran by the arc people themselves.
I rest my case.
The goal moving is by design, that’s why they use something as ill defined as AGI
That’s because AGI, like a lot of terms, has no meaning besides what each individual subjectively projects onto it.
I agree, like the average human isn't generally intelligent.
IMO, AGI is literally no different from ASI, though people think it is. Like, Imagine you have 1,000 generally intelligent humans working for you (which nobody is really) and you were to point them at your pet project. That would be amazing!
The average human would have average intelligence
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> We will now see the goalposts moved
It's already happening :)
Hilariously it is, I'm just reading more on this!