Comment by sen
10 hours ago
That’s how all “estimated damages” work. It’s all just made up by some random person who guesstimated a number then multiplied it by the maximum possible people effected, realistic or not.
10 hours ago
That’s how all “estimated damages” work. It’s all just made up by some random person who guesstimated a number then multiplied it by the maximum possible people effected, realistic or not.
Tell me "it's different" with this one please https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/study-links-past-em...
There’s probably a reasonable methodology but it has a lot of multiplications and some base parameters that make the whole thing wildly sensitive.
It's not reasonable because the error bars of each estimate compound and they may not even be normally distributed in the first place. You should rather convolve probability distributions - assuming factors are independent - and if the IQR covers a huge range, perhaps orders of magnitude even, you should state that.
Yes, it's actually based on an economic model seemingly developed with a detailed understanding of modern farming practices and historical effects of timeline disruptions on yields. It may be approximate but isn't just some random dude guesstimating based on vibes or something.
https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/05/how-will-the-gps-o...
https://shiny.agmanager.info/cottonBotsDev/