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Comment by BeetleB

10 hours ago

"I was given £1M to run my project over 5 years; Anthropic took only 11 days but I do wonder if they spent more money…"

Gives you an idea of the scale...

How many previous attempts with other models failed or on other problems. Perhaps this is $300k out of $100M or $1B of total budget just breadth first searching theorems in math and all the failed attempts conveniently don't get mentioned.

It sounds plausible they spent more, given the output tokens (6 billion of them) would cost $300k at API prices and presumably there will have been many more input tokens than output tokens.

  • Unlikely, api pricing includes a healthy profit margin (as near as we can tell from the outside) which they wouldn’t charge themselves.

    • > healthy profit margin (as near as we can tell from the outside)

      Ugh we still don't know if this is true and it's nearly impossible to calculate without a full understanding of the real CAPEX cycle. Stop spreading these rumors until we know for sure.

      3 replies →

    • And which they could not charge anyone for. Unless these were extra resources that would otherwise go unused it cost them the amount they could have charged for them. Normally I would expect most businesses to make reasonable tradeoffs when it comes to how to allocate resources. I’m not convinced that any of the AI providers should be given that benefit of the doubt.

    • The token price seems like a poor measure.

      Building the LLM that could do this work in 11 days cost multi billions.

      The economics probably only make sense if LLMs prove to be a benefit to almost everyone in a way we can all accept.

      Otherwise this cost a lot more than we’d otherwise pay. It was incredibly fast though. But we all know: cost, speed, quality. Pick two.

I burned $70 on fable 5.1 Max in about 2 hours. I suggest never using fable 5.1 on higher than High reasoning unless someone else is paying for it.

  • Yeah, "major conjecture proved" with unlimited token budget bankrolled by trillion dollar firm.