Comment by LiamPowell
5 hours ago
Were you one of those people who said "strawberry is the best icecream flavour"? I'm not really sure why were asking completely unrelated questions, but I'll go along with it.
Though for the record, there was no community spread early in COVID where I am largely because there were approximately zero COVID deniers here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Western_A...
>Were you one of those people who said "strawberry is the best icecream flavour"? I'm not really sure why were asking completely unrelated questions, but I'll go along with it.
Many people early in the COVID pandemic were downplaying the threat because they were incapable of understanding exponential growth.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-156412575
Many people are making the same mistake, right now, for AI. Note the logarithmic y-axis on this page: https://ai2027tracker.com/
> https://ai2027tracker.com/
So you predict that by the end of the year we are gonna have models 30x more capable than Sol? Nice prediction, let's hold on to this for 4 months.
That's not my site. But I have a question. At what point did you predict the following?
"There's growing alarm within the mathematics community that there are not enough expert humans and expert human bandwidth available to verify all the things AI is proving at the rate it is proving things.
Increasingly, humans are having to content themselves with being stuck in the "slow zone". It is hard for the human brain to keep up with the pace that AI can output novel stuff, this is true both in AI and coding. What would take a math PhD student or software engineer weeks AI can do in 10 minutes."
https://substack.com/@moreisdifferent/note/c-310829588
In the context of COVID, failure to predict an extraordinary outcome was very costly. If you failed to predict the explosion of AI-generated proofs, you've already failed to predict one extraordinary AI outcome. Don't be surprised if this tendency bites you.