Comment by XenophileJKO
7 hours ago
You really have no idea what you are talking about.
I have been running an intermittent experiment with a multi agent "investment firm" for over a year now across model releases.
They certainly can beat indexes, BUT.. the model families have some biases that you have to design around. The stop loss that bit the parent is certainly one. The models like to create rules. Often rules, one of those is making all kinds of exit conditions.
Another big one from my experience is the bias to inaction in a scenario with risk. This means a model without structure around it will bias to keeping too much cash.
This would be nice if it was supported by some hard data. But even if it was, one year is too short of a timeline to make any kind of reasonable conclusions about its efficacy.
Buying stock based on coin flips can beat indexes short term too, that does not mean it is a better strategy or that it works over the long term.
There must be some room for some anti-llm agent that can profit from specific behaviors of these models when deployed against actual markets.
The idea that somebody here came up with idea that all professional algo traders didn't explore to the last penny a year if not more ahead of others is funny... but its not my money adding liquidity to the markets.
Is it opensource?
"just trust me bro"
Come to me when you have 500 trades and can beat Vangaurd's-VOO over a multi year time frame. Ill bet my entire networth and all future earnings for the rest of my life that your bot doesnt beat it. Your llm induced Dunning Kruger is going to get you in trouble one of these days I promise.
Look, it isn't fool proof and it is dangerous. With the current models you need to understand both markets and model biases and dynamics.
However with that said they are a huge multiplier and can tirelessly analyze the market for you.
They certainly can be used to beat sp 500 quite easily, but again that requires some understanding of risk on your part because the models will do what you ask them. If you go all in on options or something without clear risk management you will lose your ass.