Comment by oblio
2 hours ago
I'm also a techie, so I've also read a lot of SF.
But I've also read about retrofuturism.
If you want to live far into the future, 20 years from now what you will and imagine looks very quaint, because the future never plays out like we think it does.
OpenAI is a lot closer to bankruptcy than to ASI.
I'm perfectly fine with this prediction aging badly.
>the future never plays out like we think it does
Consider this 1926 government report:
https://www.derekthompson.org/p/america-1926-an-absurdly-dee...
"The authors of Recent Social Trends were astonishingly prescient about the direction of technology."
There have been many successful predictions, e.g. the internet was predicted, AI was predicted, moon landings were predicted, etc.
>OpenAI is a lot closer to bankruptcy than to ASI.
We can't count on an OpenAI bankruptcy to save us.
There have been many successful predictions about the future. In my personal experience probably 100 out of 10 million predictions.