Comment by stared

Point taken, but there is a much more fundamental issue with it - and precisely why I wrote "very conservative".

It is a different problem if we pick two sets from the same data distribution, A and B, and first we have a score on A, then on B. Here we re-run on precisely the same set of Terminal Bench 2.1 problems. It may be that results are so random between runs that each single task has the same probability in a Bernoulli distribution. But more likely, many problems are easy (i.e. each run will solve them consistently), many are too hard (i.e. no run is going to solve them) and only a fraction is somehow in between.

Maybe there is some good trick to find a proper distribution, but to my knowledge, we would need to run it at least two times on TB2.1 to get any more educated estimates. That said, I am open to new ideas.

That said, I consider frequentist probability a dirty trick, and that Bayesian is the proper way of doing things (vide David J.C. MacKay" Information Theory, Inference, and Learning Algorithms" and Cam Davidson-Pilon "Probabilistic Programming & Bayesian Methods for Hackers" https://www.inference.org.uk/itprnn/book.pdf, https://dataorigami.net/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesi...).