Comment by x312
13 hours ago
The proof is that LLMs could barely solve arithmetic 3 years ago, but now surpass the best human mathematicians, and that this has all occurred from simple principles (RL + compute) that will continue to scale up by factors of millions in the coming years.
Also, advocating for slowing LLM progress does not benefit Anthropic or OpenAI.
They surpass the best human mathematicians in one specific way: they don't get tired or bored.
It won't scale up by factors of millions, that's just obscene hyperbole. Since chatgpt we've probably made things 10x more intelligent on the same hardware. We've also made way more expensive models. Maybe we get a maximum of another 10x efficiency and 5x model size/expense from this point but millions is a joke.
Haven't people learned about the peril of assuming, "Line go up" yet?!
TRENDS HAVE FEEDBACK
Trends don't go on forever, but the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. There's no good rule of thumb for this, other than maybe the Lindy effect.
I won’t presume to time it, but at this point I think anyone can see what’s coming. It’s precisely because it can’t be timed that a sane person should stand well clear.
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