Comment by mitxela

> The key confusion underlying the FCF is the confusion of what is known before observing the data — that the CI, whatever it will be, has a fixed chance of containing the true value — with what is known after observing the data. Frequentist CI theory says nothing at all about the probability that a particular, observed confidence interval contains the true value; it is either 0 (if the interval does not contain the parameter) or 1 (if the interval does contain the true value).

They're really reaching here. There's a 95% chance it's 1 and 5% it's 0, and we don't know which, so it's 0.95. Like saying the probability your uncle died of a shark attack is either 0 or 1. But in reality I don't know anything about your uncle so it's the average probability that someone picked randomly died of a shark attack, until I know it about your uncle.