Comment by JumpCrisscross
8 hours ago
> It's unknowable
Knowability and likelihood are almost orthogonal here. If I commit a crime and perfectly destroy the evidence, my deed may be unknowable. That doesn’t make it more or less likely.
> not possible to prove if any one specific conversation contained the insights for solving Navier–Stokes
It may be. We haven’t seen the researchers’ transcripts. We don’t know what Buckmaster or his co-author uploaded to OpenAI or with what permissions (or if OpenAI actually respects those toggles).
I think OpenAI desperately wants to make a blanket denial that they didn't look at or train on Buckmaster and Alpöge's chat transcripts, but know they cannot, because the data is anonymized.
The fact they can't make a blanket denial triggers everyone's bullshit detectors, and they're getting eviscerated over it.
> fact they can't
Again, see the Apple lawsuit. OpenAI has never been constrained by facts in what it can and can’t say.
To the extent anything is setting off my bullshit detector, it’s in the idea that this time is different (Moreover, the idea that we should assume this divergence without evidence.)
OpenAI doesn’t have the benefit of doubt. They shouldn’t for anyone who’s honest and reasonable. That doesn’t mean they’re automatically at fault. But when the twentieth person comes forward and says a pattern is continuing, I’m giving them the preliminary benefit of doubt. It’s a bit extreme to conclude based on that. But it’s far more baseless to swing to the other side and claim we need to clear the table for a serial offender.