Comment by Dylan16807

The trivial example demonstrates that once you pick your confidence interval you don't truly have odds anymore. But if we're judging whether we have the right odds number, what matters is if a different number is correct. And the only coherent way I can think of to interpret "odds" says the odds are 50%. The trivial example survives that challenge.

The examples that actually ruin the number so far have been asymmetrical. Is there a way to do it with a gaussian? Especially if you're trying to make a reasonable internal?