Comment by SleightOfHand
13 hours ago
You're not considering video which OpenAI opted out of when they retired Sora.
Generative video requires significantly more computing power and energy than generative text.
OpenAI is fucked, compute is still needed, it's just them that isn't.
OpenAI dropped sora because it was costing them ridiculous amounts of money and earning them very little. They determined that the market can't support the cost of generating video.
Without a material change in the market (more buyers, vastly cheaper generation), it's unlikely a different company could make that work. More buyers isn't likely to happen, so that leaves vastly cheaper generation - something that would cause nvidia's value to collapse if it happened.
> the market can't support the cost of generating video.
I'd suggest that's only the case given the current quality of output. Media is incredibly expensive to produce. A model capable of sufficiently high quality could charge prices that are absurd by today's standards.
It’s a very small set of buyers that are in that price range. Total annual domestic box office revenue is like $10 billion, maybe $50 billion for global TV and film. And that’s revenue, not profit, and a lot of costs are going to marketing, not to filming and casting. That’s a lot of money, but it’s not the scale that OpenAI and Anthropic are at.
Video generation would only make sense at that scale if it was targeting individual consumers, but then it’d need to cost something that consumers are willing to pay - which practically is probably a few hundred per year at most among US consumers, and much less globally, so again it doesn’t solve for the size of the AI companies.
I don’t see a way that video generation becomes a big industry without making generation much much cheaper.
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There would also need to exist sufficient demand for video, which hasn’t happened yet.
Minimax H3 works pretty great and you can run it on a 3090.
oAI isn't anywhere near close to fucked as long as their models are head and shoulders above even the very best open models in terms of tool calling and rock solid stability/reliability for agents/coding harnesses. Which, they are right now and we'll see if open models actually catch up in that regard. Even the "best" open models pale in comparison with tool calling and general "prompt and go do something else for an hour" reliability that we have with GPT models. With GPT models, streaming rarely stops unexpectedly. You almost never have to constantly nudge them along, etc. Granted with open models all of this can vary depending on the provider, and perhaps open models/protocols/APIs/harnesses aren't well enough aligned, but OpenAI models just seem to work without constant (or hardly any) wrinkles and with almost any harness/agent.
>oAI isn't anywhere near close to fucked as long as their models are head and shoulders above even the very best open models in terms of tool calling and rock solid stability/reliability for agents/coding harnesses
That's already not the case today. If you sat me in front of an LLM and told me to figure out if I'm working with K3 or Astra, I could probably do it, but it would take some work to be certain.
Well I could for sure. I guess a lot of this is indeed very anecdotal.
All we do with these things is some work though
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