Comment by zozbot234
10 hours ago
> We learned that we can already create artifical intelligence that surpasses human intelligence in some dimensions.
Yes and this was very hard and required massive real-world resources. We didn't just get a sudden flash of insight by thinking real hard about how to make ourselves smarter. Yet that's always the story that underlies any claim of RSI. You can always phrase things generally enough to make any kind of AI-led improvement look like "RSI" no matter how short-term and tightly bounded, but that's just not helpful.
Would you not agree that, using existing AI tooling, making an LLM of arbitrary below-frontier capability is now easier than it would be without using LLM tooling?
Given that, it seems obvious that the next generation of LLMs will arrive faster than they would have without LLM capability. And the one after that. The floor is being raised, which makes it easier to push on the frontier.
Fable has only been out for three months. Astra is even newer. The capability of these models compared to what existed even a year ago, and the effect they are having on the production of new software, is immense.
That's all you need. RSI can happen with what we have now, just by enabling the continuous shrinking of the loop of people trying new ideas and implementing them. It does not require some magical "go make yourself better" prompt against some model that is past some magical tipping point.
> Would you not agree that, using existing AI tooling, making an LLM of arbitrary below-frontier capability is now easier
Marginally easier? Yes of course, same as how it's now "easier" to write any kind of code because we aren't using punch cards anymore. That still doesn't get you to any kind of unbounded "takeoff" scenario, because diminishing returns are a thing. The "loop" of people trying out new ideas can only shrink so much.
Right. I'm saying the unbounded takeoff scenario isn't realistic, but it doesn't matter. The rate of improvement is continuing to increase, and the gap between present day and autonomous rogue felony generators is not large.
Internally Mythos has been available in February.
The labs have been holding their best models back for a while it seems like.