Comment by baq
7 hours ago
The idea that a few hundred apes with nothing but a bunch of rocks could one day land on the moon and come back to earth safely must’ve sounded ridiculous a hundred thousand years ago
7 hours ago
The idea that a few hundred apes with nothing but a bunch of rocks could one day land on the moon and come back to earth safely must’ve sounded ridiculous a hundred thousand years ago
I like this comment because at least it's honest in the timelines for AGI
It's not honest in AGI timelines (only biological ones). It just accidentally supports your unsubstantiated belief. Your belief isn't magically true because you're somehow able to see the future when others can't. You're just arrogant.
To whom?
Well actually the planet happened to have a vast reserve of petroleum they could use for fuel to escape the gravity well. That helped a lot.
But what's your point? "Anything is possible" or something like that?
Yeah but it was reality giving feedback to apes on their experiments not the apes themselves assessing themselves.
It was ridiculous, it took 100,000 years. If you built a recursively analyzing and improving structure out of LLM bits and it took 100,000 years to get to the moon, somebody saying that they were useless would have been right.
Call me when LLMs can get simple things right. Math is just the manipulation of symbols within established frameworks, we should be getting new math out of LLMs daily and we're somehow still not. They can't even do customer service, which is usually handled by 90 IQ people. I'm not impressed that they can find bugs; memory bugs are obvious when they're pointed out to you, and LLMs are entirely made up of examples and the relationships between them.
These companies are about to crash, and they're afraid they haven't reached the point where they'll have to be bailed out. I'm also subscribing to the conspiracy theory that the companies want the government to step in and create AI regulation boards entirely staffed by people at the current US frontier labs, so they can collude to both raise prices, to get government contracts, to make open/Chinese AI illegal, and to make things that were once easy to do without an AI intermediary impossible to do without an AI intermediary. Raising prices and forced purchases are the goal. They're trying to avoid having to compete, because as a business they're garbage.
Matt Stoller characterized their relentless press releasing as something like "my dick is so big that it has to be regulated." It's such an oversell for something that is not showing up as productivity gains, and anybody who has personal experience with knows is incapable of doing more than three things correctly in a row.