Comment by InsideOutSanta
10 hours ago
> if OpenAI can’t use the compute, someone else can.
The problem with that is that OpenAI can only afford to pay for the compute because they are burning investor money (and so are most of OpenAI's biggest clients). They are losing billions. If they stop burning money, nobody else will be there to pay for that compute at OpenAI's cost.
Sure, somebody will probably be able to use these GPUs, they just won't be able to pay nearly as much for them as OpenAI does.
In reality, it's just nowhere near worth as much as OpenAI pays for it. Inflating the cost of compute is part of the problem caused by the circular financing, and if (or maybe when) OpenAI goes, the price of compute will go with them.
OpenAI and Anthropic are so far ahead of anyone else in terms of compute demand generation. Iirc correctly they're like 70% of GPU demand between them on hyperscalers and then Meta is 10% and Google internal demand is some distance behind meta. If OAI halved in generation you would need a couple of new companies with a Metas worth of demand to replace it is quite a sobering thought.
> investor money
But that’s the point. Investors believe investment in AI will pay off.
Right, "believe".
That's how all investment works. That's how money works. You believe some story. Not everyone believes the same story.
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