Comment by bobogei81123

I don’t claim this is their entire motiv, and I’m sure plenty of people internally are genuinely concerned about AI risks and the disruptions caused by moving too fast. But I can’t help but feel that part of the push to "pace the frontier" is an attempt to form a "Phoebus Cartel" for AI labs.

Now the risk of an AI bubble isn't that AI lacks real world utility. Rather, it's that AI is advancing so quickly that capabilities are already saturating for most everyday tasks, and it is becoming commoditized. I didn't feel much difference between Opus 4.8 and Fable 5.1, and most tasks don't require a Fields Medalist.

We don't need smarter models but we need faster and cheaper ones. Also, for almost every frontier model released, an open-weights equivalent follows within six months. Unless this dynamic changes, the business becomes far less lucrative.