Comment by andsoitis
10 hours ago
Yes of course. Is the point you're actually trying to make that investors are making a pure call, so their belief in the story is misplaced? That they should believe a different story?
10 hours ago
Yes of course. Is the point you're actually trying to make that investors are making a pure call, so their belief in the story is misplaced? That they should believe a different story?
I think I made my point in the original post you responded to: OpenAI heavily subsidized token cost using investor money. If they go under, there will still be demand for that compute, but because OpenAI is paying more for it than it is actually worth (i.e. what the end customers are willing to pay), any company replacing OpenAI will not pay the same amount OpenAI pays.
So when people say "somebody else will buy that compute", they are correct, but they are ignoring that it will still cause a massive decrease in revenue generated by that compute.
If you're asking me what my point about "believing" is, it's this. OpenAI is losing billions every quarter. It's only staying afloat because it can still find investors who believe in its ability to eventually become incredibly profitable. But there are signs that this is starting to change (e.g. it's unlikely that Softbank will be able to find much more money to give to OpenAI). If OpenAI can't keep raising more money and can't IPO at the level they need (as seems to be the case, given that they keep pushing any IPO date forward), OpenAI will eventually run out of money.
I'm not sure how investors believing in things changes any of this, so now it's your turn to explain what the point is you're actually trying to make.