Comment by cowthulhu
3 hours ago
Everyone writing off AI-related risk in this thread should think about what would need to happen for them to consider AI a serious existential risk. It can be outlandish and unlikely (close call with a bioweapon? unsupervised persistence in a data center?) but people should honestly call their shots and then stick with them.
No. The person making the improbable argument is required to provide an affirmative case for that argument.
It's not my job to make the argument for them.
For what it's worth, I have done your suggested exercise, and I find every causal link (including the ones brought up by luminaries like Amodei) to be outrageous and poorly argued. But it's not my job expend effort to make their outrageous arguments better.
I'm not making an affirmative case - I'm looking for others to introspect about this, and anchor their expectations.
If we have a bioweapon close call, would you consider AI an existential risk at that point? If not, how close would we need to get?
You don't need to answer here, or disclose anything publicly - just think and remember.
I don’t really understand this exercise of predicting what I’ll be thinking in the future.
10 replies →
> If we have a bioweapon close call, would you consider AI an existential risk at that point? If not, how close would we need to get?
The thing is, this doesn't really mean anything.
What is a bioweapon close call? What is the process in which a bioweapon close call happens? An AI that hacks all cell phones to emitt anthrax?
No. Why? If you want to convince people something is true you need to actually convince them it’s true. They don’t need to justify not believing you.
I'm not asking for justification, just for people to introspect about what, if anything, it would take for them to consider AI a serious threat. No justification needed, and really no need to post it here, just think about it and remember it in the future.
At this point, the most likely scenario for AI producing a serious existential risk is making us all want to bash our heads in because of "the honest options" and other claude-isms.