Comment by diddid
2 hours ago
I always get annoyed when people misinterpret Occam’s razor. It’s not that the simplest is more likely to be correct, it’s that you should prefer it, because it’s simple.
It’s just like the Hopper quote. She said it’s better to ask for forgiveness during the fog of war, doing something you thought was right, not to do something you knew they were going to say no to and now you are trying to get away with something.
I think you should get less annoyed.
> It’s not that the simplest is more likely to be correct, it’s that you should prefer it, because it’s simple.
I don't know what Occam meant, but if you accept the formalism of PAC learning, it is more likely to be correct
https://web.archive.org/web/20170428225156/http://www.cse.bu...
https://web.archive.org/web/20130412062821/http://cs.ecs.bay...
The notion of "simplicity" can be completely arbitrary, though. It's enough that there are only finitely many hypotheses simpler than the best hypothesis (assuming there's such a thing as a best hypothesis). So as you eliminate hypotheses incompatible with the data, at some point you'll have eliminated all simpler hypotheses, and the simplest hypothesis left will also be the best hypothesis. If simpler hypotheses are also more likely to be correct, you get there faster, but it's not required.
None of your links work for me.
Ah! from my very dated and messy bibtex file comments. Wait, let me search for them on archive.org.
Fixed.
There are also various metaphysical theories that posit that the universe is algorithmically generated in some sense or the other, and from many of those theories it follows that simplicity is a fundamental feature of reality, which yields an even stronger version of Occam’s Razor.
That's not true. It's pretty clear that she meant "do something you knew they were going to say no to and now you are trying to get away with something."
https://youtu.be/wHdHCoeUbU4?t=861s
> So I want to tell something to all the young people here on many many occasions you'll find it is much easier to apologize than it is to get permission. You do it then when somebody comes after you and say are you supposed to do that, "oh gee I didn't know I wasn't supposed to do that" ... so just remember it's frequently much easier to apologize than it is to get permission do it
She goes on further, explaining how to deceive your superiors to manipulate them to get what you want.
But I still don’t think that means eat all the cookies in the cookie jar and then apologize after because nobody would have given permission. That’s still about doing what you believe to be right. She even frames the fallout as “where you supposed to do that?” and not “you shouldn’t have done that”.
Damn no wonder she got a supercomputer named after her
And sadly, in academia, complexity (opposite of Occam's razor) is what gets you published.
It's partly because of disagreement about what "complexity" and "simplicity" actually are. Many simple statements are in fact backed by massively complex, unstated assumptions. In attempting to deal with assumptions, scientists necessarily end up having to deal with the complexity involved in that. But the problem is if you don't engage with that, how do you know what is really more conformant with Occam's razor, as opposed to just satisfying what is readily expressed in common language?
Likewise in software development a C developer will say abstractions are not simple, a java programmer will argue that dealing with low levels details is not simple. They're both kinda right but will resort to framings which back their world view.
Marcus Hutter formalized this in his AIXI work.
>It’s just like the Hopper quote.
Not sure about Hopper, as I recall biographers of Lawrence of Arabia certainly made it seem like he was using the fog of war to do things he knew his superiors may object to.
Regardless, even if its misinterpreted it still has a kernal of truth and separate utility than your version, that is: the people in the field closest to the action have an operational awareness that may result in better decisions in times of urgency.