Comment by api
1 day ago
What is an "effective altruist firm" and why does it exist?
I feel slightly vindicated by this. Those hacks and the stuff around them had a certain smell to them.
Hard to explain, but I've gotten so I can "smell" online messaging and memetic patterns originating from certain quarters. Probably means I'm way too online.
A couple examples of distinct "smells" I can usually recognize include "alt-right / chan-fash," "liberal arts college woke," "conspiracy pilled," "Thiel-adjacent contrarian," "Russian troll farm," "Tumblr histrionic," "spends too much time on Reddit," "mainstream Democrat think tank full of Obama administration alumni," "Trump cultist," and of course "LessWrong/EA/MIRI/Rationalist."
This stuff all had the last smell, even down to the choice of fonts and CSS formatting on certain sites. It's really weird, definitely a "vibe" not anything rigorous.
But when I get these kinds of vibes about things, I find that I'm vindicated pretty often. Usually I don't say anything and just make a mental note and wait cause if I say something everyone thinks I'm nuts.
I don't think you even need to get conspiratorial with it. All of the AI leaders and all of the Rationalist leaders are publicly and enthusiastically connected. They have been pushing stories about sentient AIs into the mainstream for decades, long before GPT existed.
The novel thing here is the total decay of American journalistic ethics and regulatory power. Our elite are so totally out of political juice and visions of the future that a fringe cult based on 80s scifi movies can come to have a more-or-less dominant influence on our economy.
A big part of the problem is that with previous technological revolutions, politicians and the media could understand them in general terms. Railroads, cars, planes, telephones, personal computers, mobile phones, mobile phones that are computers, the internet (ignoring the “series of tubes” interpretation), etc.
The general approach in all these cases was to defer to the technologists in question to manage the technology, as long as what they were doing wasn’t completely out of bounds. But the critical point is it was possible for people to generally figure that out without specialist education.
But with AI, politicians, the media, and certainly the man in the street are completely out of their depth. Making matters worse is that cognitive biases are working against them like crazy: it’s easy to jump from the idea of something that has human-like capabilities to the idea that “it” might want to attack us. People instinctively apply agent detection bias, theory of mind, anthropomorphizing, etc., without even realizing they’re being irrational. Heck, even Hinton does it, although he may just be grifting, who knows. You’d think he wouldn’t need to.
And of course, the people who should know better want to exploit all this to make as much money as possible. I’m not sure the EA/Rationalist side of things is really significant here; that’s just another wacky belief system, like Christianity or capitalism, for the exploiters to exploit.