Comment by rsanek

>would likely have been under the level allowing for straight probation (go to a sentencing calculator and plug the values in)

Depends alot on the values inputted into such a calculator. See [0] for a solid discussion of what his future could have been (search for "That brings up the important question of how much time Swartz was actually facing"). TLDR, it's certainly not the case that only probation was guaranteed or even particularly likely.

[0] https://volokh.com/2013/01/16/the-criminal-charges-against-a...