Comment by sothatsit
11 hours ago
The probability values don’t really represent confidence in modern LLMs though, especially after RLHF and RLVR.
System One says they use RLCD, Reinforcement Learning for Calibrated Decisions, which presumably has accurate probabilities as an explicit optimisation goal.
How is that different from RLVR?
RLVR generally upweights tokens along the whole thinking trace that led to a correct answer, whether each token was "correct" or not. RLVR doesn't train a model to output an 80% likelihood, it just trains it to produce correct answers, and not to produce incorrect ones.
System One hasn't said how RLCD works, but they do say it is explicitly training models to output "calibrated" probabilities, which makes it distinct from RLVR. This is how they describe it:
> System One models are trained for calibrated decisions: their probabilities are optimized against outcomes to reflect uncertainty.