Each time Russia is suffering troubles in the war, this events happen; and they happen in clusters. A few models are recycled again and again and adapted to each country. Sabotage to railways and wildfires "caused by climate change" are two of the most popular. Another is sending people to protest and cause trouble in the streets with any excuse, supported by campaigns of disinformation online from some IP in Russian soil. Another was Russia caught cutting marine internet cables. We even may suspect that the lone wolf driving over people or backstabbing people in the streets is another.
Just last week, Ukraine killed two more Russian generals and a colonel. Losing 13 major generals, admirals and lieutenants and more than 42 colonels [1] is not a minor issue in any war. Ukraine also hit again a big refinery to the point of Trump asking Zelensky "stop doing that to refineries". "You are making my friend cry" is implicit. Ukraine is also slowly pushing back Russians in some front lines
Putin can keep doing chest thumping and faking strength in public, but the facts point to that Russia is not doing as well in the war as he would wish.
You may have noticed the huge increase in Russian provocations to NATO lately. Putin risk to be assassinated by his own generals increases with each general killed. He needs to redirect the angry towards an external target, and is desperate for a NATO move that would justify him (legally and in the eyes of Russians people) to start a major mobilization soon after the Russian elections that start in two days.
So expect more events like those in Europe in the next days, and maybe some dumb move of Trump to destroy another good thing in US, with the clock ticking before he turns into a burnt out asset.
At this point, a p-value is more than enough.
Each time Russia is suffering troubles in the war, this events happen; and they happen in clusters. A few models are recycled again and again and adapted to each country. Sabotage to railways and wildfires "caused by climate change" are two of the most popular. Another is sending people to protest and cause trouble in the streets with any excuse, supported by campaigns of disinformation online from some IP in Russian soil. Another was Russia caught cutting marine internet cables. We even may suspect that the lone wolf driving over people or backstabbing people in the streets is another.
Just last week, Ukraine killed two more Russian generals and a colonel. Losing 13 major generals, admirals and lieutenants and more than 42 colonels [1] is not a minor issue in any war. Ukraine also hit again a big refinery to the point of Trump asking Zelensky "stop doing that to refineries". "You are making my friend cry" is implicit. Ukraine is also slowly pushing back Russians in some front lines
Putin can keep doing chest thumping and faking strength in public, but the facts point to that Russia is not doing as well in the war as he would wish.
You may have noticed the huge increase in Russian provocations to NATO lately. Putin risk to be assassinated by his own generals increases with each general killed. He needs to redirect the angry towards an external target, and is desperate for a NATO move that would justify him (legally and in the eyes of Russians people) to start a major mobilization soon after the Russian elections that start in two days.
So expect more events like those in Europe in the next days, and maybe some dumb move of Trump to destroy another good thing in US, with the clock ticking before he turns into a burnt out asset.
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[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_generals_kille...