Comment by im_down_w_otp
17 hours ago
You’re describing only one flavor of inflation. What the Fed is supposed to care about is price stability, and lots of things influence prices, and not all of them are money supply and/or new money supply correspondent.
We saw this during COVID, the prices of things shot through the roof because of a combination of supply-chain shocks as well as the already well capitalized seizing the opportunity to spend their war chests locking down as much of the available supply as possible, which resulted in consolidation, which resulted in less available supply.
The random trade wars directly cause goods to cost more for absolutely no good reason whatsoever, it’s just a tax masquerading as a price increase, but the Fed deals in stabilizing prices, not taxes. So, it changing the money supply parameters does nothing.
The weakening of the international trade position of the USD writ large also causes prices to go up for no good reason, and nothing about that is going to be resolved by the Fed fiddling with the money supply parameters because it has to do with the stability and reliability of the U.S. as a trustworthy geopolitical operator, which the Fed can do next to nothing about.
The inflation being experienced as price instability/increases is being induced acutely by terrible fiscal & trade policy, but the Fed is acting to try to “fix it” using monetary policy, which won’t work at all. So, what’s the point? Just to look like it’s doing something?
Inflation isn't like ice cream that comes in assorted flavors. It's a simple ratio (hard to measure in practice, but still conceptually simple).
If one side of a ratio is fluctuating (for whatever reason) the ratio's value can be stabilized by making corresponding adjustments to the other side. Amount of goods drops 10%? Reduce the money supply by 10%, bam!, no inflation.
There may be all sorts of policy or political reasons for not doing this, but that's not the same thing as saying that it's necessarily ineffective because the inflation in question is the wrong "flavor".