Comment by Eisenstein

https://danluu.com/zitron/

Some highlights:

Feb 2024: "I believe we're reaching the upper limits about what generative AI can do and how accurate its outputs can be."

July 2024: "Generative AI, as I said back in March, is peaking, if it hasn't already peaked. It cannot do much more than it is currently doing, other than doing more of it faster with some new inputs"

July 2024: "Generative AI models aren’t getting more energy-efficient, nor are they getting more “powerful”

August 2024: "generative AI is a dead-end technology that has peaked”

Dec 2024: "I also warned you in March that generative AI had already peaked.”

Jan 2025: "I believe we’re at peak AI"

February 2025: "Sam Altman deputizing Orion from GPT-5 to GPT-4.5 suggests that OpenAI has hit a wall with making its next model, requiring him to lower expectations"

April 2025: "It also, at this point, is pretty obvious that generative AI isn't going to do much more than it does today."

August 2025: "These models have clearly hit a wall where training is hitting diminishing returns"

Nov 2025: "the fact we're running out of high quality training data and we're hitting the walls of scaling laws, in the training paradigm, these models aren't getting better. What we're seeing today is pretty much what they're always gonna be like"