Comment by dguest
3 hours ago
I'm wondering if the bottom is going to fall out of frontier models when people start to realize this. Sure, as an experienced programmer you can tell the difference between a compact free model and the ones that are 100x bigger and cost billions to train, but 90% of busy work is dead simple: turn a PDF into json fields, or do the inverse and fill out a form. As the tools for this conversion become more widespread you can also imagine an economic shift toward efficient information brokers that make frontier models less necessary.
It's also not really clear if everyone is going to want a frontier model when the real implications sink in. Maybe we'll get sick of incomprehensible code optimizations and people wile tire of reading AI prose that feels ever-more-human. There might be a few use cases, but who is going to pay for this when providers start charging enough to be profitable.
I think this is the long-term reality of LLM tech and one of the objectives of engineers implementing solutions, finding the right fit for the job - the right model and cost to achieve high enough accuracy at the lowest price.
But that's phase two, phase one is finding localized problems to solve using LLMs and productize them. I'm reminded of cloud tech, where phase one was changing software to run in the cloud, and phase two was optimizing costs.