Comment by devy
8 hours ago
HBM4 and HBM4E DRAM are NOT the DDR4/5 that consumer markets need. Capacity allocation is leaning more to data center grade HBMs so less to produce dedicated DDR4/5 DRAMs. Supply demand will further drive up the consumer DRAM price! Note, the article mentions NO of new fabs is being constructed (all semiconductor manufacturers know that constructing more fabs means the boom/burst cycle will eventually kill them, so no one create more fabs) Perhaps the federal government need to step in here - the market doesn't fit the issue.
Plus it takes 3x the wafer capacity for hbm than the same byte capacity in dram, so we’ll likely see the consumer market be decimated here
The consumer market will not be decimated. Memory of all kinds will get very cheap quite soon because of supply and demand and substitution.
No, completely wrong. Supply and demand will definitely fix this.
More HBM4 will drive the price of it down. That will make it less profitable to produce. That will mean firms shift some production back to more profitable "consumer" RAM. Increased supply will lead to lower prices.
A shortage is always followed by a glut.
What specifically did that say that you think is wrong?
Supply is currently moving the wrong way. Supply and demand for consumer DRAM will get even worse, even if it will "definitely fix this" in the long run.
And the fact that production is moving the wrong way suggests that in the short term supply and demand is actually doing more harm than good. HBM is so profitable it's radioactive.
I don't know where you got the idea in another comment that all memory will get "very cheap quite soon". They're not increasing total memory production. (much/yet)
> What specifically did that say that you think is wrong?
You said:
> the market doesn't fit the issue.
I presume you meant "fix" not "fit". You are wrong that the market will not fix the issue. There are literally millions of observed cases across many markets of increased demand (or decreased supply) leading to higher prices leading to increased supply leading to lower prices, which is why it's a fundamental law of economics.
The price of RAM will fall.
> That will mean firms shift some production back to more profitable "consumer" RAM. Increased supply will lead to lower prices.
Long-term, sure. But the article we are discussing is about next year, non-HBM supply going from 60% of their output to 20% (HBM 40%→80%).
HBM can be used for GPU though. I wish it was more common.
Might lower the prices of Mac Minis, Studios etc though
No, those use LPDDR5(x), not HBM.