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Comment by devy

6 hours ago

HBM4 and HBM4E DRAM are NOT the DDR4/5 that consumer markets need. Capacity allocation is leaning more to data center grade HBMs so less to produce dedicated DDR4/5 DRAMs. Supply demand will further drive up the consumer DRAM price! Note, the article mentions NO of new fabs is being constructed (all semiconductor manufacturers know that constructing more fabs means the boom/burst cycle will eventually kill them, so no one create more fabs) Perhaps the federal government need to step in here - the market doesn't fit the issue.

Plus it takes 3x the wafer capacity for hbm than the same byte capacity in dram, so we’ll likely see the consumer market be decimated here

  • The consumer market will not be decimated. Memory of all kinds will get very cheap quite soon because of supply and demand and substitution.

No, completely wrong. Supply and demand will definitely fix this.

More HBM4 will drive the price of it down. That will make it less profitable to produce. That will mean firms shift some production back to more profitable "consumer" RAM. Increased supply will lead to lower prices.

A shortage is always followed by a glut.